Notes |
Contents:
Preface vii
Acknowledgments viii
Executive Summary 1
1. Introduction to climate change and water 5
1.1 Background 7
1.2 Scope 7
1.3 The context of the Technical Paper: socio-economic and environmental conditions 8
1.3.1 Observed changes 8
1.3.2 Projected changes 9
1.4 Outline 11
2. Observed and projected changes in climate as they relate to water 13
2.1 Observed changes in climate as they relate to water 15
2.1.1 Precipitation (including extremes) and water vapour 15
2.1.2 Snow and land ice 19
2.1.3 Sea level 20
2.1.4 Evapotranspiration 20
2.1.5 Soil moisture 21
2.1.6 Runoff and river discharge 21
2.1.7 Patterns of large-scale variability 22
2.2 Influences and feedbacks of hydrological changes on climate 23
2.2.1 Land surface effects 23
2.2.2 Feedbacks through changes in ocean circulation 24
2.2.3 Emissions and sinks affected by hydrological processes or biogeochemical feedbacks 24
2.3 Projected changes in climate as they relate to water 24
2.3.1 Precipitation (including extremes) and water vapour 25
2.3.2 Snow and land ice 27
2.3.3 Sea level 28
2.3.4 Evapotranspiration 29
2.3.5 Soil moisture 29
2.3.6 Runoff and river discharge 29
2.3.7 Patterns of large-scale variability 31
3. Linking climate change and water resources: impacts and responses 33
3.1 Observed climate change impacts 35
3.1.1 Observed effects due to changes in the cryosphere 35
3.1.2 Hydrology and water resources 35
3.2 Future changes in water availability and demand due to climate change 38
3.2.1 Climate-related drivers of freshwater systems in the future 38
3.2.2 Non-climatic drivers of freshwater systems in the future 43
Contents
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3.2.3 Impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in the future 44
3.2.4 Impacts of climate change on freshwater demand in the future 44
3.2.5 Impacts of climate change on water stress in the future 45
3.2.6 Impacts of climate change on costs and other socio-economic aspects of freshwater 45
3.2.7 Freshwater areas and sectors highly vulnerable to climate change 47
3.2.8 Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on freshwater systems 47
3.3 Water-related adaptation to climate change: an overview 48
4. Climate change and water resources in systems and sectors 53
4.1 Ecosystems and biodiversity 55
4.1.1 Context 55
4.1.2 Projected changes in hydrology and implications for global biodiversity 55
4.1.3 Impacts of changes in hydrology on major ecosystem types 55
4.2 Agriculture and food security, land use and forestry 59
4.2.1 Context 59
4.2.2 Observations 60
4.2.3 Projections 60
4.2.4 Adaptation, vulnerability and sustainable development 63
4.3 Human health 67
4.3.1 Context 67
4.3.2 Observations 69
4.3.3 Projections 69
4.3.4 Adaptation, vulnerability and sustainable development 69
4.4 Water supply and sanitation 69
4.4.1 Context 69
4.4.2 Observations 69
4.4.3 Projections 70
4.4.4 Adaptation, vulnerability and sustainable development 71
4.5 Settlements and infrastructure 73
4.5.1 Settlements 73
4.5.2 Infrastructure 73
4.5.3 Adaptation 74
4.6 Economy: insurance, tourism, industry, transportation 74
4.6.1 Context 74
4.6.2 Socio-economic costs, mitigation, adaptation, vulnerability, sustainable development 75
5. Analysing regional aspects of climate change and water resources 77
5.1 Africa 79
5.1.1 Context 79
5.1.2 Current observations 79
5.1.3 Projected changes 81
5.1.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 85
5.2 Asia 85
5.2.1 Context 85
5.2.2 Observed impacts of climate change on water 85
5.2.3 Projected impact of climate change on water and key vulnerabilities 87
5.2.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 88
5.3 Australia and New Zealand 90
5.3.1 Context 90
5.3.2 Observed changes 90
5.3.3 Projected changes 91
5.3.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 92
5.4 Europe 93
5.4.1 Context 93
5.4.2 Observed changes 93
5.4.3 Projected changes 93
5.4.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 95
5.5 Latin America 96
5.5.1 Context 96
5.5.2 Observed changes 96
5.5.3 Projected changes 98
5.5.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 100
5.6 North America 102
5.6.1 Context and observed changes 102
5.6.2 Projected change and consequences 102
5.6.3 Adaptation 104
5.7 Polar regions 106
5.7.1 Context 106
5.7.2 Observed changes 107
5.7.3 Projected changes 108
5.7.4 Adaptation and vulnerability 109
5.8 Small islands 109
5.8.1 Context 109
5.8.2 Observed climatic trends and projections in island regions 109
5.8.3 Adaptation, vulnerability and sustainability 111
6. Climate change mitigation measures and water 115
6.1 Introduction 117
6.2 Sector-specific mitigation 117
6.2.1 Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) 117
6.2.2 Bio-energy crops 117
6.2.3 Biomass electricity 119
6.2.4 Hydropower 119
6.2.5 Geothermal energy 119
6.2.6 Energy use in buildings 119
6.2.7 Land-use change and management 119
6.2.8 Cropland management (water) 120
6.2.9 Cropland management (reduced tillage) 120
6.2.10 Afforestation or reforestation 120
6.2.11 Avoided/reduced deforestation 121
6.2.12 Solid waste management; wastewater treatment 121
6.2.13 Unconventional oil 122
6.3 Effects of water management policies and measures on GHG emissions and mitigation 122
6.3.1 Hydro dams 122
6.3.2 Irrigation 122
6.3.3 Residue return 122
6.3.4 Drainage of cropland 123
vi
6.3.5 Wastewater treatment 123
6.3.6 Desalinisation 124
6.3.7 Geothermal energy 124
6.4 Potential water resource conflicts between adaptation and mitigation 124
7. Implications for policy and sustainable development 125
7.1 Implication for policy by sector 127
7.2 The main water-related projected impacts by regions 128
7.3 Implications for climate mitigation policy 130
7.4 Implications for sustainable development 130
8. Gaps in knowledge and suggestions for further work 133
8.1 Observational needs 135
8.2 Understanding climate projections and their impacts 135
8.2.1 Understanding and projecting climate change 135
8.2.2 Water-related impacts 136
8.3 Adaptation and mitigation 136
References 139
Appendix I: Climate model descriptions 165
Appendix II: Glossary 167
Appendix III: Acronyms, chemical symbols, scientific units 183
Appendix IV: List of Authors 185
Appendix V: List of Reviewers 187
Appendix VI: Permissions to publish 191
Index 193 |
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