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Most analysts agree that the poorest countries’ agricultures are likely to be the most vulnerable to – and least capable of adapting to – climate change or other environmental disruptions. Research has only recently begun to assess what the likely impacts of climate change on developing countries’ agricultures may be, how these agricultures might adapt to climate change, and how policies might be designed to facilitate adaptation. The paper begins with a discussion of what researchers currently believe the impacts of climate change could be on developing country agriculture, principally tropical agriculture. It goes on to address the issue of predicting the long term trend in productivity by building on the knowledge of the economic factors determining agricultural innovation and adaptation. An economic approach to modelling managed ecosystems is outlined.