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(2008) Arctic Sea Ice in 2008: Standing on the Threshold

Authors
Serreze M.C.
Source
The American Geophysical Union (2)
Type
P - Paper (2851)
Peer Review
1 - High (2301)
Audience
S - Specialist (3514)
Notes

Abstract. Perhaps the most visible sign of global climate change is the Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover. Concerns are growing that we are approaching a “tipping point”, beyond which there is rapid transition to ice- free Arctic Ocean in summer. Sea ice extent in September 2007 was the lowest recorded over the satellite era, and likely the lowest in at least a century. Could summer 2007 have been the tipping point? Given this possibility, eyes of the polar community focused on 2008. Would ice extent this summer set another record low, or would there be a recovery? Satellite data revealed that much of Arctic Ocean in spring 2008 was covered by fairly thin, first-year ice, vulnerable to melting out in summer. Coupled with indications of early spring melt, the stage was set for dramatic summer sea ice losses, rivaling or even exceeding those of 2007. However, by July, we had fallen well off the record pace. While there was no doubt that the summer ice minimum would be well below average, setting a new record seemed unlikely. Thinking started to change in August, when the daily rate of ice loss, instead of slowing in response to seasonal cooling of the Arctic, maintained a brisk and fairly steady value, largely due to pronounced ice melt in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas. By late August, and with several weeks still left in the melt season, ice extent had fallen to the second lowest level yet recorded in the satellite era. As of this writing, in early September, we were closing in on the 2007 record.

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