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Abstract:
Models of climate change predict close coupling
between increases in aridity and conversion of Amazonian
forests to savanna. Here we assess the vulnerability and
resilience of Amazonian vegetation to climate change by
analyzing observed climate-vegetation relationships using
climate data, observed vegetation distributions, and
evapotranspiration rates inferred from eddy flux data. We
found that drought frequency is an excellent predictor of the
forest-savanna boundary, indicating the key role of extreme
climatic events for inducing vegetation change, and
highlighting particularly vulnerable regions of Amazoˆnia.