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Abstract

The record Arctic sea ice minimum in 2007 has heightened debate on whether the Arctic Ocean has reached a tipping point, leading to a rapid transition towards a seasonal ice cover. Here, we review the 2007–2008 winter and spring ice and atmosphere conditions and assess how likely another record minimum is in summer 2008. At the end of June, 67% of the Arctic Ocean was covered by younger-than-average ice and only 5% was covered by older than-average-ice. Using a simple estimate based on ice survival rates, a new record low is reached in 2008 in 24 of 25 cases. With a more complex linear regression model, we suggest the September sea ice extent will be 4.40 million square kilometers, with a 40% chance that 2008 will set a new record low Arctic ice minimum.