Bioclimate.org: Precursors for resilience in coral communities in a warming climate: a belief network approach.

Authors	Wooldridge S. , Done T. , Berkelmans R. , Jones R. , Marshall P.A.
Source	Marine Ecology Progress Series (17)
Type	P - Paper (2851)
Peer Review	2 - Medium (2288)
Audience	S - Specialist (3514)
Pages	157-169
Journal Number	295
Notes	We modelled the arrival of future bleaching events as an intrinsic environmental feature whose dynamics depend on the future rate of warming in (sea surface temperature, SST). For our study area, we applied the modelling package ‘ReefClim’ (R. Jones et al. unpubl.) to determine the local change in SST degree–1 (°C) of global warming, where global warming estimates were based on IPCC predictions for a range of greenhouse gas emissions and climate sensitivities (IPCC 2001). Through application of the LARS-WG weather generator (Semenov et al. 1998), we generated an artificial sample (n = 100) of year long daily SST sequences for each decade (to 2050) that was consistent with this local pattern of warming. The statistics used to generate the systematic daily variability (around background warming) were based on measures of sea temperatures recorded at Australian Institute of Marine Science weather stations and underwater temperature loggers at the study site from 1990 to 2000; i.e. we assume this variability remains the same until 2050.